IlI

 

 Do Not Miss This Historic Chance !

Shared Characteristics of Petrocracies

The Optimal Political System

A U.S. Victory in Asia

 Petrocratic dictatorships share similar characteristics.

In modern Russia, there exist influential, regime-loyal political forces that serve as a “quasi-opposition”.
First and foremost, these comprise business communities — specifically those unconnected to the extraction and export of natural resources, or to the production of weapons and ammunition.
They also include the overwhelming majority of the humanitarian intelligentsia, as well as scientific and technocratic communities.

These social strata believe that the only viable alternative to the current Kremlin dictatorship is Western social-liberal democracy.
However, since the late 20th century, Western democratic civilization has acquired fundamental flaws: economic weakness, political impotence, and social malaise — 7iskusstv.com/?p=127876
The West is rapidly aging, weakening, and dying out.
Russian elites have no desire to become part of this suicidal, doomed civilization.
Consequently — with a mixture of revulsion and anger — they continue to prop up the Kremlin regime.

In reality, the optimal social system is the «Federal Communal Republic» — 7iskusstv.com/?p=116731
However, the poorly educated and intellectually limited elites of the Russian Federation remain unaware of this objective fact.
Were they cognizant of this optimally productive alternative to both autocracy and democracy, they would cease their support for the Kremlin dictatorship and instead direct their efforts and resources toward the evolutionary transformation of the Russian Federation into a Federal Communal Republic.

In modern-day Iran, the overwhelming majority of the urban, educated population — including the business community, as well as national, cultural, and religious minorities — desires to replace the clerical dictatorship with a secular political system.
However, the single most influential, potentially oppositionist force is the majority of the Iranian military.
This majority continues to support the clerical dictatorship, and not solely out of fear of repression by the IRGC.
As a result of the regime's propaganda, these individuals believe that were the clerical dictatorship to be dismantled, a Western-style liberal political system would be imposed upon Iran.
They remember the consequences of the democratization of Iran under Western pressure in 1979.
They are well aware of the catastrophic outcomes of democratization in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Egypt, Palestine, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and other nations.
They view democracy as an anti-Islamic, anti-Sharia, and diabolical system. Furthermore, they are firmly convinced that in the 21st century — within Western civilization itself — this system is in a state of degradation, impoverishment, and terminal decline. Consequently, they have no desire to exchange one flawed system for another.

In reality, during a transitional period lasting three, five, or seven years, the optimal political system for Iran would be a secular military junta.
Such a regime is currently in place in modern Egypt.
Such a regime fosters economic growth, engages in cooperation with other nations, and upholds peace and mutual trust.

Throughout this transitional process, the ruling junta — acting in concert with the business elite — would facilitate the establishment and development of communities and community federations in accordance with Sharia law, which mandates a communal way of life.
These communities and federations would constitute the foundational framework of the social system for a «Sharia Federal Republic».
Given that such a system fosters optimal economic efficiency and maximizes the pace of societal development, the ruling junta will, through an evolutionary process, transfer state functions and powers to the institutions and bodies of the Sharia Federal Republic during the transitional period.
Public discourse regarding the «Sharia Federal Republic» system — and the transitional process for its establishment — will serve to consolidate all opposition strata within Iran, including the military, while simultaneously and significantly eroding the ideological and political support base of the clerical regime.

The military will serve as the bedrock for the unification of Iran's opposition forces.
In addition to the military, this coalition will comprise business associations, national, cultural, and religious minorities, and civil society organizations — including those representing the overseas diaspora.
During the initial phase — and with the military backing of the United States and Western nations — guerrilla units affiliated with this coalition will seize strategic footholds in Iran's border, coastal, and ethnically distinct provinces.
As the advance proceeds toward the country's interior and the capital, the coalition's units will grow in size, multiply in number, and gain in strength.
Conversely, the IRGC will diminish in size and grow increasingly weak.

The effectiveness of these military operations could be vastly enhanced by deploying teams of Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters, leveraging their refined drone technologies and combat experience.
Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of drones could be remotely controlled via the Internet by Ukrainian students — operating directly from their homes — as well as by students in Israel, Arab nations, and Western countries.
Airborne cellular relay stations mounted on loitering UAVs would relay drone control signals and provide communication capabilities to millions of Iranian protesters, enabling them to report the locations of camouflaged IRGC assets.

The U.S. military intends to seize Kharg Island, the facility where 90% of Iran's oil exports are loaded onto tankers.
This island constitutes the economic bedrock of both the ruling regime and the IRGC.
Its capture would deprive the regime and the IRGC of both financial resources and public support.

Independent business associations could swiftly initiate academic discussions regarding the «Sharia Federal Republic» project and the transitional process for its establishment, as well as expert-level debates within Western and Iranian media outlets.
To achieve this, the involvement of the Pentagon and U.S. State Department bureaucracies is not required.
Thus, by June 2026, the organizational framework for uniting Iran's opposition forces could be fully established.

With air, intelligence, and arms support from Western militaries, these united forces would defeat the IRGC within a matter of months.
They would enter Tehran in October or November of 2026.
A secular junta would then assume power in the country for the duration of the transitional period.

From that moment onward, Iran would become an ally of the United States and the entire Western world — much like Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan — while significantly curtailing its cooperation with China.
The construction of a «Sharia Federal Republic» in Iran would serve as a model example for Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the nations of Central Asia.
These countries will form a cordon to contain China's expansion in the Western direction.

The dismantling of Iran's totalitarian regime and the installation of a pro-Western junta will constitute a global victory for the U.S. Administration and a strategic defeat for China.
Expert discussions regarding the «Sharia Federal Republic» system in Western media will also expose the fundamental flaws of social-liberal democracy.
These events will pave the way for a triumphant victory for the Republican Party in the 2026 U.S. Congressional elections.

The removal of Iran's clerical regime will deprive the Kremlin dictatorship of one of its key international allies.
Discussions of the «Sharia Republic» in Iranian and global media will trigger a broader debate — within the media, among social elites, and within business communities in Russia — regarding the concept of a «Federal Communal Republic» (7iskusstv.com/?p=116731).
This debate will present a productive, optimal alternative to the Kremlin's autocracy; it will significantly erode public support for the dictatorship, consolidate and empower opposition groups — primarily business associations — and initiate the evolutionary transformation of the Russian Federation into a Federal Communal Republic.

Following the example of the Iranian junta, Egypt's ruling junta will embark on the construction of its own Sharia Federative Republic.
Regimes in Algeria, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria will likewise begin the process of transforming into such republics.
The junta, business associations, and technocratic elites of Turkey will consolidate their efforts to establish the communitarian structures of a new republic and to dismantle the authoritarian regime of R. Erdogan.

The entire vast Levant region will be transformed into a peaceful, prosperous, and dynamically developing region of the world.

Business associations in Venezuela, Cuba, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and other South American nations will also initiate reforms based on the «Federal Communal Republic» model.

The presented concept for reforming Iran aligns fully with the objective characteristics of social systems — including those of nations with oil-based economies — and is, therefore, entirely feasible; moreover, it can be implemented both rapidly and cost-effectively.

A simplified pathway for realizing this concept might proceed as follows:
Three to five knowledgeable individuals discuss the potential flaws of the concept online.
Subsequently, these individuals — along with other readers — identify friends, relatives, or neighbors who possess connections within business associations, the military, or the intelligence services.
The materials generated during the aforementioned discussion are then submitted to these organizations.
From that point onward, the design and planning of Iran's reforms would evolve and advance within these organizations.

Israeli and American businesspeople will reach out to their Iranian counterparts to inform them of these potential reforms.
The Iranian businesspeople will discuss this concept with officers of the Iranian military.
The Iranian officers will then request air, intelligence, and technical support from the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

Subsequently, events and processes will unfold within the military sphere and at the political level.

The expenditure of military resources by Israel and the U.S. along this path would be substantially lower than that required for continued massive bombing campaigns.
The effectiveness of these actions would be many times greater.
They would yield qualitatively more significant results: the rapid dismantling of the IRGC, the establishment of a pro-Western regime in Iran, and the cessation of funding for — and the ultimate demise of — Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Iran’s global network of terrorists and saboteurs.

Additional collateral effects would include a landslide victory for the Republican Party in the 2026 Congressional elections; a geopolitical and economic defeat for China, thereby reducing the risk of an invasion of Taiwan; and an ideological weakening of the Kremlin that could bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Thus, the future geopolitical trajectory will be determined by the feasibility of assembling a team of three to five competent experts capable of initiating the design of a productive transformation of Iran’s political system.

However, instead of adopting a scientifically grounded, productive approach, the U.S. Administration is employing a crude, voluntaristic method for dismantling the Iranian regime.
This Administration is provocatively inciting an unarmed civilian population to attack armed IRGC units and to vandalize government facilities.
Fanatical IRGC soldiers are ruthlessly gunning down thousands of protesters.
This nationwide carnage threatens to claim hundreds of thousands of lives.
Under the pressure of massive airstrikes, IRGC units are dispersing and taking cover within civilian infrastructure, embedding themselves amidst the general population.

The IRGC is shifting toward guerrilla warfare tactics.
Consequently, rather than leading to the organized and effective elimination of the IRGC, this approach by the U.S. Administration will result in mass, chaotic killings of both opponents and supporters of the regime, and a "war of all against all".
Beyond causing mass casualties and destruction, such a chaotic civil war would render the future consolidation, organization, and cooperation of new political forces — as well as the construction of a new state system — extremely difficult and complex.
Within Iran, armed groups analogous to the former ISIS in Iraq will emerge.
These forces will sabotage shipping in the Persian Gulf and carry out attacks and acts of sabotage in other countries.

To ensure freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the United States, the Gulf states, and potentially China must annex and partition among themselves the islands located within these waters, occupy them, and establish military bases there.

Oil and gas exports constitute the primary factor underpinning the formation and continued existence of the authoritarian regime.
The U.S. Administration intends to leave the control over oil and gas exports in the hands of the future new Iranian state.
Within a few years, this very factor will give rise to a new totalitarian and aggressive regime.

Therefore, to build a productive, developing, and peace-loving republic in Iran, a specialized body of the international community must appropriate Iran’s natural resource rents from oil and gas; prevent these revenues from being spent on consumption, commercial investments, and — above all — political activities; and channel them exclusively toward Iran’s strategic development goals: a national "Future Generations Fund", science, education, infrastructure, and pediatric healthcare — all under strict international oversight.

However, should the ongoing conflict fail to eradicate the current Iranian regime:
The IRGC will kill hundreds of thousands of Iranians and — with the assistance of China and the Kremlin — resurrect its nuclear and missile programs.
Hezbollah, Hamas, and other groups will continue their attacks against Israel; the Houthis will intensify their acts of sabotage in the Red Sea; and Iranian terrorists will step up their activities worldwide.
The U.S. Republican Party will suffer a catastrophic defeat in the 2026 Congressional elections, facing bleak prospects for the 2030s.
The China–Kremlin–Iran axis will strengthen significantly and intensify its attacks against Ukraine, Europe, and Taiwan.
The duration, severity, and consequences of the looming global recession will be significantly exacerbated.

The next geopolitical window — one equally favorable for the elimination of the IRGC — may not open again for another 5 to 15 years.

Consequently, the U.S. Administration, the Government of Israel, and the entire Western community must seize this historic opportunity to establish peace in the Middle East by completely dismantling the IRGC before November 2026.
However, at present, there are absolutely no signs of any think tank or strategic planning body working to devise an effective strategy for eliminating the IRGC.
The continued absence of substantive expert support for a political strategy regarding Iran is rapidly diminishing this historic opportunity.

E. Gershman